Hierarchical elimination-by-aspects and nested logit models of stated preferences for alternative fuel vehicles

1. INTRODUCTION Since the late 1960s, transport demand analysis has been the context for significant developments in model forms for the representation of discrete choice behaviour. Such developments have adhered almost exclusively to the behavioural paradigm of Random Utility Maximisation (RUM), first proposed by Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960). A common argument for the allegiance to RUM is that it ensures consistency with the fundamental axioms of microeconomic consumer theory and, it follows, permits interface between the demand model and the concepts of welfare economics (e.g. Koppelman and Wen, 2001). The desire to better represent observed choice, which has driven developments in RUM models, has been somewhat at odds, however, with the frequent assault on the utility maximisation paradigm, and by implication RUM, from a range of literatures. This critique has challenged the empirical validity of the fundamental axioms (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky, 2000; Mclntosh and Ryan, 2002; Saelensmide, 1999) and, more generally, the realism of the notion of instrumental rationality inherent in utility maximisation (e.g. Hargreaves-Heap, 1992; McFadden, 1999; Camerer, 1998). Emanating from these literatures has been an alternative family of so-called non-RUM models, which seek to offer greater realism in the representation of how individuals actually process choice tasks. The workshop on Methodological Developments at the 2000 Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research concluded: 'Non-RUM models deserve to be evaluated side-by-side with RUM models to determine their practicality, ability to describe behaviour, and usefulness for transportation policy. The research agenda should include tests of these models' (Bolduc and McFadden, 2001 p326). The present paper, together with a companion paper, Batley and Daly (2003), offer a timely contribution to this research priority. Batley and Daly (2003) present a detailed account of the theoretical derivation of RUM, and consider the relationships of two specific RUM forms; nested logit [NL] (Ben-Akiva, 1974; Williams, 1977; Daly and Zachary, 1976; McFadden, 1978) and recursive nested extreme value [RNEV] (Daly, 2001 ; Bierlaire, 2002; Daly and Bierlaire, 2003); to two specific non-RUM forms; elimination-by-aspects [EBA] (Tversky, 1972a, 1972b) and hierarchical EBA [HEBA] (Tversky and Sattath, 1979). In particular, Batley and Daly (2003) establish conditions under which NL and RNEV derive equivalent choice probabilities to HEBA and EBA, respectively. These findings would seem to ameliorate the concern that the application of RUM models to data generated by non-RUM choice processes could introduce significant biases. That aside, substantive issues remain as to how non-RUM models can best be specified so as to yield useful and robust information in both estimation and forecasting contexts, and how their empirical performance compares with RUM models. Such issues are the focus of the present paper, which applies non-RUM models to a real empirical context

Recent results from the NA48 experiment at CERN: CP violation and CKM parameter Vus

Several recent results from the NA48 experiment are presented: a measurement $|\eta_{+-}|$, search for CP violating phenomena in $K^\pm\to3\pi$ decays, and a measurement of $|V_{us}|$.Comment: A talk given at the 2007 Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics. 3 page

Quantifying and decomposing the uncertainty in appraisal value of travel time savings

This paper is concerned with computing interval estimates for appraisal values of travel time savings (VTTS) for non-work journeys. The paper has important conclusions relating to the benefits, in terms of uncertainty in appraisal VTTS, of resampling the base year VTTS and improving on the precision of the estimate of the GDP elasticity in the uprating equation. Importantly it is shown that the interval widths increase dramatically as VTTS is forecast further into the future. This has a significant modelling implication in that it is the uncertainty associated with the process of uprating base estimates of VTTS which results in the large interval width, rather than that associated with the base year VTTS estimate. This in turn implies a need to regularly resample the base VTTS, so as to avoid excessive temporal extrapolation of the base VTTS

Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain

This paper provides an extensive review and reconciliation of British and European evidence relating to the value of, and demand responses to, rail reliability. In particular, we compare the elasticities implied by stated preference valuations of late time with directly estimated lateness elasticities. We find that the implied lateness elasticities are substantially greater than those directly estimated. A possible explanation for this is that lateness has been over-valued, but more sobering explanations would be to suggest that, whilst rail travellers dislike unreliability, they may be unwilling or unable to reduce their rail travel in response to experiences of poor performance, or else conventional economic approaches to deducing elasticities are not appropriate. The findings have been used to update the recommendations of the UK rail industry’s Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook

Reliability Equivalence in Public Transport Contexts

This work provides initial investigation into whether equivalence between the mean-variance and scheduling approaches to transport reliability can be applied in the context high frequency public transport services. Each of these approaches is briefly outlined and the current work is framed by previous research attempting to demonstrate equivalence: both theoretically and empirically. The basic assumptions underpinning the theoretical approach to equivalence are explored and then re-formulated based upon which variables are likely to be known. The concept of headway is introduced to the theoretical approach using notation from previous research in order to represent public transport services. An empirical illustration of the method is undertaken using smart card data obtained from the London Underground metro system. The data are combined with timetable data and a previously developed method for estimating passenger preferred arrival times, which in turn allows the theoretical equivalence between mean-variance and scheduling approaches to be tested empirically. This is initially performed for a single origin-destination (OD) pair and then for 23 other ODs of varying headways. The example using a single OD demonstrates that even for a high frequency metro service, application of the theoretical equivalence is problematic, with variable parameters substantially affected. In the case of many ODs, a linear relationship is observed between the ratio of public transport to standard scheduling parameters and headway, suggesting the theoretical equivalence becomes less viable as headway increases. At the lowest values of headway, it is concluded that the equivalence remains problematic and further work is required before equivalence between the mean variance and scheduling approaches can be implemented in the public transport context

The value of travel time: random utility versus random valuation

This paper identifies, relates and compares two popular modelling approaches to estimate the value of travel time changes. The first (random utility [RU]) assumes that the random component of the model relates to the difference between the utilities of travel options; the second (random valuation [RV]) assumes that it relates to the difference between the value of travel time and a suggested valuation threshold. This paper gives details of the theoretical relationship between the two approaches and compares them empirically at several levels of model sophistication. Datasets from two national studies (the UK and Denmark) are employed. The results show a consistent superiority of the RV approach and a systematic gap in the value of travel time between approaches. A similar pattern across models is found in both countries. This raises questions about the validity of results using the RU approach. The analysis has direct implications for both researchers and policy-makers

The Politics of Service Delivery Reform

This article identifies the leaders, the supporters and the resisters of public service reform. It adopts a principal–agent framework, comparing reality with an ‘ideal’ situation in which citizens are the principals over political policy-makers as their agents, and policy-makers are the principals over public service officials as their agents. Reform in most developing countries is complicated by an additional set of external actors — international financial institutions and donors. In practice, international agencies and core government officials usually act as the ‘principals’ in the determination of reforms. The analysis identifies the interests involved in reform, indicating how the balance between them is affected by institutional and sectoral factors. Organizational reforms, particularly in the social sectors, present greater difficulties than first generation economic policy reforms

The isospin symmetry breaking effects in Ke4K_{e4} decays

The Fermi-Watson theorem is generalized to the case of two coupled channels with different masses and applied to final state interaction in $K_{e4}$ decays. The impact of considered effect on the phase of the $\pi\pi$ scattering is estimated and shown that it can be crucial for scattering lengths extraction from experimental data on $K_{e4}$ decays

Direct CP violation in neutral kaon decays

The final result is presented of the NA48 Experiment performed at CERN SPS neutral kaon beams on the direct CP violation parameter Re(epsilon'/epsilon), as maesured from the decay rates of neutral kaons into two pions. The data collected in years 1997-2001 yield the evidence for direct CP violation with Re(epsilon'/epsilon)=(14.7+-2.2)10^-4. Description of expermental method and systematics, comparison with world data and some discussion of implications for theory are given.Comment: 5 pp., 3 figs, presented on behalf of NA48 Collaboration at PASCOS 2003 Conference, Mumbai, India, 2-8 Jan 2003, to appear in Praman

The demand impacts of train punctuality in great britain: systematic review, meta-analysis and some new econometric insights

This paper updates and extends the systematic review and meta-analysis of Wardman and Batley (Transportation 41:1041–1069, 2014), which hitherto was the most comprehensive study of the impacts of punctuality on passenger rail demand in the literature. Whereas the 2014 paper covered 51 elasticities from 6 studies in Great Britain published between 2003 and 2011, this updated paper adds 11 subsequent British studies yielding a further 201 observations. The meta-model recovers a range of significant effects, relating to whether the elasticity was short versus long run, flow type and distance, season versus nonseason tickets, the relevant measure of lateness, and whether the purpose of the study was specifically the estimation of late time elasticities. Allowance was also made for study quality-related issues. The data indicated that, despite dynamic models being commonplace, there is some uncertainty as to how long the long run is. Alongside the meta-model, the paper also reports new econometric evidence that addresses some gaps in existing evidence and knowledge, especially in relation to functional form and non-linearity of effects. Findings from both strands of analysis would seem to suggest that rail industry guidance has tended to overstate the demand impacts of punctuality